Ice shields and “volcanoes”

Sea ice & icebergs

Arctic sea ice extent has rapidly decreased over the last few decades, with most multi-year ice disappearing altogether. This has already had major effects on local communities and ecosystems. The disappearance of the relatively reflective sea ice also leads to a dramatic decrease of albedo in the Arctic and subsequent high energy uptakes by the darker water during the Arctic summers.

Similar to other ideas to pump water on sea ice (see Sea ice thickening), engineer Sev Clarke (Planetary Restoration n.d.) and engineering student Katy Cartlidge (University of Cambridge 2022) both came up with designs to artificially produce sea ice. In both schemes, water is pumped up through a central pipe and allowed to freeze onto previously-grown ice. This ongoing process then slowly forms a thicker mass of ice that would hopefully be able to survive over longer periods. Many of these 'icebergs', which Clarke calls Ice Shields and Cartlidge dubbed ice volcanoes, could together form larger surface areas that could have multiple benefits for ecosystems and the climate.

Technological Readiness Level (TRL)

Low 1

Both ideas have been suggested by their authors but have not been explored further.

Technological Readiness Level (TRL)

A technology with a TRL of 1-3: TRL 1 – Basic; TRL 2 – Concept formulated; TRL 3 – Experimental proof of concept

Scalability

Low 1

Scalability

Physically unable to scale; sub-linear/logarithmic efficiency of scalability

Timeliness for near-future effects

Low 1

Timeliness for near-future effects

Implemented too late to make a significant difference

Northern + Arctic potential

Low 1

Northern + Arctic potential

No noticeable extra positive effect beyond the global average; technology is unsuited to the Arctic

Global potential

Low 1

Global potential

Insignificant to be detected at a global scale

Cost - benefit

Medium 2

Hao et al (2023) estimate that the melting of the sea ice would in any case costs the world an average of 6.7–13.3 trillion USD annually over the period 2020 to 2100, when the costs of the forcing effects of the ice are calculated in terms of equivalent costs of the forcing that is the result of GHG emissions.

Cost - benefit

Significant investment costs needed, but still much cheaper than the avoided damage costs (e.g., 30%).

Environmental risks

Medium 2

Environmental risks

More widespread and possibly regional impacts that extend beyond the immediate solution deployment location

Community impacts

Unknown 0

Ease of reversibility

Medium 2

Ease of reversibility

Possible with significant investment

Risk of termination shock

Medium 2

Risk of termination shock

Medium or relatively significant termination shock or damage

Legality/governance

Medium 2

Legality/governance

Fits within existing structures to a certain degree, but some policy changes are needed to deploy at scale

Scientific/media attention

Medium 2

Both ideas are isolates and have not yet been subject to further study.

Scientific/media attention

Some attention within the scientific community, including published research and funding programmes; some media attention; some commercial interest

References

Clarke, S. n.d. Planetary Restoration blog: #4 Ice Shield/Ice Thickening. https://planetaryrestoration.net/f/sev-clarke-more-climate-solutions [Accessed 9 July 2024]

Hao H., Su B., Liu S., and Zhuo W. 2023. Radiative Effects and Costing Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Albedo Changes. Remote Sensing. 15(4):970. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15040970

University of Cambridge. 4 Oct. 2022. Undergraduate project: Can an 'ice volcano' help to regenerate sea ice? Dept. of Eng. News. http://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/undergraduate-project-can-ice-volcano-help-regenerate-sea-ice?s=03 [Accessed 9 July 2024]

Related ideas

Polar bear looking for whale cadaver under water, Svalbard

Industry

Direct ocean capture

The majority of the inorganic carbon on Earth is stored in the oceans. There is a natural carbon exchange between the ocean and the land.

High waves at Tromøy shore, "Rollingstone" (Raet) National Park in planning, Arendal

Oceans & marine

Hydrological system modification - Ocean current modification

Hydrological systems play an important role in energy distribution in the climate system. For the Arctic and Northern region the clearest example of this is the habitability of the European Arctic thanks to the Gulf Stream. Furthermore, there are several access points to the Arctic ocean that play an important role in shaping local geophysical conditions.

Shelf-Iceberg, North of Antarctic Peninsula

Ice sheets and glaciers

Ice sheet stabilization via buttressing

One of the potentially most catastrophic effects of contemporary global warming would be the dramatic increase in sea levels as a result of the melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Even if all current emissions were immediately stopped, sea level rise could still occur because of lockedin warming (State of the Cryosphere report 2022).

Alternating layers of limestone and dolomite, Eleonore Bay, Northeast Greenland National Park

Industry

Atmospheric methane capture by zeolites

Methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas and its reduction is given ever greater priority in international emission reduction policies (see for example https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/). There are many different materials that have been suggested and explored to capture methane (Alonso et al. 2017).

Melting glacier ice, Rødefjord, Northeast Greenland National Park

Ice sheets and glaciers

Glacier insulation with fabrics

Up to 50% of the world’s glaciers are set to disappear this century, with many more at risk if emission reduction targets are not met (Rounce et al. 2023).

Ice sheets and glaciers

Stabilizing glaciers by cloud seeding

Up to 50% of the world’s glaciers are set to disappear this century, with many more at risk if emission reduction targets are not met (Rounce et al. 2023).

Autumn at Mykland after forest fire 5 years ago

Land-based measures

Wildfire management

Fire is important to the healthy functioning of boreal ecosystems. However, as wildfires increase, they release greater amounts of GHGs into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. While boreal fires typically contribute 10% of global CO2 emissions, in 2021, an extreme fire year, they accounted for 23% of global emissions (Zheng et al. 2023). Particulate matter in wildfire smoke (soot or black carbon, see also Black carbon mitigation) can also reduce albedo on sea ice and glaciers, enhancing ice melt (e.g., Aubry-Wake et al. 2022). Wildfires are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity over the coming decades (UNEP 2022). By 2050, wildfires in North American boreal forests alone could contribute close to 12 Gt CO2, almost 3% of the remaining global CO2 emissions to keep temperatures to below 1.5oC (Phillips et al. 2022a).

Ice sheets and glaciers

Increasing glacier thickness by local artificial snow production

Up to 50% of the world’s glaciers are set to disappear this century, with many more at risk if emission reduction targets are not met (Rounce et al. 2023).