Ice sheet stabilization via buttressing

Ice sheets and glaciers

Shelf-Iceberg, North of Antarctic Peninsula

One of the potentially most catastrophic effects of contemporary global warming would be the dramatic increase in sea levels as a result of the melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Even if all current emissions were immediately stopped, sea level rise could still occur because of lockedin warming (State of the Cryosphere report 2022).

It has been suggested that ice sheets could be stabilized by building physical structures that could artificially support and buttress them. These pinning points would provide places for the ice sheet to stabilize, and encourage the growth of new ice (Wolovick and Moore 2018). Another idea would be to increase ice sheet thickness which would allow increased contact with already existing points (Lockley et al. 2020).

Technological Readiness Level (TRL)

Low 1

This was one of the first ice sheets stabilization ideas (MacAyeal 1983), and is again proposed as a research topic (MacAyeal pers. comm.). However, as of yet, buttressing as a means of stabilizing ice sheets has not been studied or explored further.

Technological Readiness Level (TRL)

A technology with a TRL of 1-3: TRL 1 – Basic; TRL 2 – Concept formulated; TRL 3 – Experimental proof of concept

Scalability

Low 1

Such constructions would be very difficult to build. They would moreover require vast amounts of materials, about as much as was used for the construction of artificial islands in Dubai and Hong Kong (Wolovick and Moore 2018). Because larger designs are likely to be more effective than smaller ones, material constraints will probably limit scalability even further.

Scalability

Physically unable to scale; sub-linear/logarithmic efficiency of scalability

Timeliness for near-future effects

Low 1

The idea is not currently being actively explored. Considering that the most serious ice sheet instability in Antarctica is probably still decades away, deployment of buttressing could, like undersea curtains (see undersea curtains), still be timely if research were started immanently.

Timeliness for near-future effects

Implemented too late to make a significant difference

Northern + Arctic potential

Low 1

Reductions in global sea level rise by stabilizing Antarctica would be felt in the Arctic as well, but in itself this method would not likely be effective in the Arctic as the region holds few ice sheets that could be buttressed.

Northern + Arctic potential

No noticeable extra positive effect beyond the global average; technology is unsuited to the Arctic

Global potential

High 3

Global sea level rise will be one of the most impactful results of current global warming. West Antarctica alone holds enough water to potentially raise sea levels by 6 meters. Any intervention that would prevent or reduce sea level rise would therefore be highly important.

Global potential

Major impacts detected

Cost - benefit

High 1

Given the huge amount of required material, and incredible logistical and construction challenges, the cost of this project will likely be prohibitively high. Although it should be noted that unmitigated sea level rise would require investments in coastal defenses that could be two to three orders of magnitude higher (Keefer et al, 2023).

Cost - benefit

Cost of investment comparable to cost of avoided damage

Environmental risks

High 1

There are likely significant environmental effects due to the construction of such buttressing points (Wolovick and Moore, 2018). However, these potential effects will have to be weighed against the major ecological disturbances potential collapse will have.

Environmental risks

Major, serious risks with a high disaster potential; multiple and cascading risks

Community impacts

Neutral 2

Construction of such buttressing points could have effects on local populations. However, as there are few ice shelves in the Arctic with any local populations, these effects will be limited.

Community impacts

Unnoticeable or negligible positive or negative effects

Ease of reversibility

Hard 1

It is likely that these structures would be hard to tear down once built, and it is unknown what could happen if they collapse or be damaged. Given the force behind calving processes and the size of icebergs, the integrity of such structures would have to be ensured.

Ease of reversibility

Impossible or very difficult to reverse

Risk of termination shock

High 1

If they collapse, this would likely have a massively destabilizing effect on the ice sheet.

Risk of termination shock

High or very significant termination shock or damage

Legality/governance

Low 1

Corbett and Parson (2022) say such intervention would currently not fit into Antarctic governance structures. This scheme would likely be far more objectionable than other glacier stabilization ideas due to the extent of the constructions required.

Legality/governance

Illegal or banned, or the legal regime is not suited to deployment

Scientific/media attention

Low 1

This idea has been suggested a few times but has not seriously been explored further.

Scientific/media attention

Very low attention from individuals and/or abandoned ideas; low media attention; no commercial interest.

References

Corbett, C. R., & Parson, E. A. (2022). Radical climate adaptation in Antarctica. Ecology Law Quarterly, 49(1). https://doi.org/10.15779/Z38BG2HB68

Lockley, A., Wolovick, M., Keefer, B., Gladstone, R., Zhao, L. Y., & Moore, J. C. (2020). Glacier geoengineering to address sea-level rise: A geotechnical approach. Advances in Climate Change Research, 11(4), 401-414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2020.11.008

MacAyeal DR (1983) Preventing a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Civil engineering on a continental scale. Annals of Glaciology, 4, 302. https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500005747

Wolovick, M. J., & Moore, J. C. (2018). Stopping the flood: could we use targeted geoengineering to mitigate sea level rise?. The Cryosphere, 12(9), 2955-2967. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2955-2018

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Ice sheets and glaciers

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