Sea ice breakup in winter

Large areas of the Northern and Arctic regions consist of permafrost, almost permanently frozen soil. As global temperatures rise, these permafrost areas are thawing at an ever faster rate. This thawing leads to massive amounts of GHGs being released into the atmosphere, as carbon stored in the permafrost is converted into methane by bacteria. Because methane is a very potent GHG, the thawing of the permafrost is considered a major tipping point in the climatic system. Permafrost preservation is of the utmost importance because Arctic terrestrial regions alone hold up to 1500 Pg C (Schuur et al. 2015), and although there is large uncertainty about the total amount of emissions from permafrost (Miner et al. 2022), especially when it comes to nonlinear abrupt thawing (Turetsky et al. 2020), significant amounts of carbon release is to be expected as the Northern regions warm.

Hydrological systems play an important role in energy distribution in the climate system. For the Arctic and Northern region the clearest example of this is the habitability of the European Arctic thanks to the Gulf Stream. Furthermore, there are several access points to the Arctic ocean that play an important role in shaping local geophysical conditions.

Arctic sea ice extent has rapidly decreased over the last few decades, with most multi-year ice disappearing altogether. This has already had major effects on local communities and ecosystems. The disappearance of the relatively reflective sea ice also leads to a dramatic decrease of albedo in the Arctic and subsequent high energy uptakes by the darker water during the Arctic summers.

The concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere will have to be stabilized or lowered to mitigate or even reverse current global warming. To achieve this, current GHG emissions need to be reduced. Such mitigation strategies will however take time to deploy, and some emission sources will be difficult to mitigate. Moreover, since current atmospheric levels are already having a major warming effect, negative emission or Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) measures that reduce the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere are an active topic of research.

Up to 50% of the world’s glaciers are set to disappear this century, with many more at risk if emission reduction targets are not met (Rounce et al. 2023). The surface of many mountain glaciers has moreover significantly darkened due to a general increase in atmospheric black carbon and other kinds of aerosols.

Methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas and its reduction is given ever greater priority in international emission reduction policies. Given the increasing, and potentially catastrophic rate of methane release from the thawing Arctic and Northern permafrost, these regions are crucial in this endeavor. Apart from the methane release from microbial activity in thawing permafrost on land, methane also escapes in the form of hydrates which have been formed under sediments beneath the sea.

The potential of carbon sequestration by marine based plants such as mangroves, seagrass and algae, often referred to as blue carbon, and the importance of better understanding it, has clearly been recognised (Mcleod et al. 2011). The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019) concluded blue carbon can play an important role in both climate regulation and adaptation. The term algae groups together several kinds of marine photosynthetic organisms. These are often subdivided into very small microalgae like phytoplankton, and larger macroalgae like kelp and seaweed. Although there is still large uncertainty about the total amount of carbon sequestered by these marine organisms, a recent estimate by Duarte et al. (2022) indicated that all macroalgae took in as much CO2 as the Amazon rainforest.

Sea water has a low albedo of around 0.1 and therefore absorbs most of the incoming solar energy. Since water covers over two thirds of the Earth’s surface, changes to this albedo can potentially cause significant changes in global temperatures.